Review of the Rapeseed Market from September 11th to 18th Last Week


Key Insights of This Week: The rapeseed market saw mixed performance this week: rapeseed oil prices rose, while rapeseed meal prices fell. China's continued anti-dumping deposit policy on Canadian rapeseed imports has essentially stagnated imports of Canadian rapeseed. Australian rapeseed, with the earliest shipment date around November and arrival not expected until December, is expected to remain tight in the fourth quarter. The approaching peak oil consumption season is driving rapeseed oil prices upward. As aquaculture enters its off-season, cooler temperatures slow fish growth, significantly reducing feed demand. This weakens the rigid demand for rapeseed meal, leading to a decline in rapeseed meal prices.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Rapeseed Oil:

Imports: Future supply of imported rapeseed oil may increase; Crushing: Tightening supply of rapeseed seed; Inventory: High rapeseed oil inventories; Demand: Rapeseed oil consumption may be boosted; Related Products: Soybean oil offers high cost-effectiveness; Crushing Profits: Imported Australian rapeseed offers good crushing margins; Import Costs: The 75.8% margin on Canadian rapeseed seed has increased import costs; Policy: The Ministry of Commerce has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and has decided to implement temporary anti-dumping measures on rapeseed seed using a margin.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Rapeseed Meal:

Imports: Future supply of imported rapeseed meal may decrease; Crushing: Tightening supply of rapeseed seed; Inventory: High rapeseed meal inventories at ports; Demand: Price differentials affect cost-effectiveness, seasonal consumption is off-season; Related Products: High soybean meal prices and low cost-effectiveness; Crushing Profits: Imported Australian rapeseed offers good crushing margins; Import Costs: The 75.8% margin on Canadian rapeseed seed has increased import costs; Policy: The Ministry of Commerce has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and has decided to implement temporary anti-dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed seed using a margin.

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