News dynamics

The CEC's latest "CECI Index Analysis Weekly Report" (Issue 34, 2025) shows that this week (September 5th to September 11th, hereinafter the same), the average daily power generation of included coal-fired power generation enterprises decreased by 5.0% compared to the previous month (August 29th to September 48th, hereinafter the same), with the main declines occurring in Northeast China (-21.1%) and Central China (-11.3%). This represents a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%. Daily coal consumption decreased by 5.9% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year. Among these, the average daily power generation of seaborne power plants decreased by 0.8% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year.

The CEC stated that, overall, this week's thermal coal market showed a pattern of diverging production areas, weak stability at ports, and volatile imports. Prices in major producing areas remain generally weak, with some minor price increases. Port inventories continue to shift to on-site storage, weakening market demand and shifting prices slightly downward. Imported coal prices have stabilized due to supply disruptions, narrowing the price gap with domestically traded coal. The overall market supply-demand dynamics are intensifying, and coal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. According to the China Electricity Council's power industry fuel statistics, as of September 11th, the cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants of included power generation groups decreased by 14.8% month-on-month, and by 4.1% year-on-year. Coal consumption by coal-fired power plants decreased by 15% month-on-month, and by 4.7% year-on-year. Coal inventories at coal-fired power plants are 9.02 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the number of days of inventory available is 3.5 days higher than the same period last year. With cooler weather and pending the release of winter coal reserves in Northeast China, power coal consumption will remain low. Combined with high terminal inventories, the overall market supply and demand remains balanced and somewhat relaxed. Supply is expected to remain stable, but there is still a possibility of structural tightening of supply for high-quality coal. Rising pithead prices and a narrowing of freight rate discounts offered by some railway bureaus have exacerbated the inverted price gap at ports. Traders, driven by cost pressures, are reluctant to sell. Port prices have shown signs of stabilizing near the weekend.

The China Electricity Council (CEC) analyzed that, judging solely from the perspective of supply and demand, spot prices will continue to weaken. However, given the actual market conditions this summer, the impact of market sentiment on price trends cannot be ignored. Coal prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the near term.

The CEC recommends continuing to fulfill medium- and long-term contracts and maintaining an appropriate amount of spot purchases for essential needs. With the National Day holiday and the Daqin Line's centralized maintenance approaching, the market faces numerous uncertainties. Inventory structures should be maintained to ensure a balance between power supply security and economic benefits.