News dynamics

On September 5th, at the beginning of the month, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement extending the anti-dumping investigation on imported canola seed originating from Canada to March 9, 2026. This move has far-reaching implications for the domestic canola meal market. Furthermore, since August 14th, importers have been required to provide customs with a 75.8% margin. The extension of the anti-dumping investigation has further exacerbated uncertainty in the canola meal market.

From the supply side, high margins have caused the cost of importing Canadian canola seed to soar. As of September 18th, the CNF price of Canadian canola seed exported to my country for November shipment was US$556/ton, equivalent to a duty-paid cost of 4,868 yuan/ton at the port. After adding the margin, the import cost reached 7,930 yuan/ton, far exceeding the domestic market's affordability and leading to a sharp decline in companies' purchasing interest. According to customs data, China imported 1.9756 million tons of Canadian canola from January to July 2025, accounting for 94.8% of total canola imports. This proportion is expected to decline significantly as the investigation progresses. Although my country is attempting to import canola from Australia, its imports will be insufficient to fill the shortfall left by the Canadian canola shortage in the short term. The anticipated supply reduction may impact domestic oil mill operating rates, leading to a reduction in rapeseed meal output.

From a price perspective, the rapeseed meal futures market reacted quickly to the announcement of the extended investigation period. Investors' concerns about future supply intensified, leading to increased long positions and a rise in rapeseed meal futures prices. In the spot market, traders and oil mills showed a stronger willingness to support prices, leading to higher spot prices in some regions. However, as domestic rapeseed meal inventories remain at a certain level, short-term price increases may be limited.

From the demand side, rapeseed meal feed mills primarily purchase by locking in spot contracts at low prices while maintaining a high level of rolling positions, mitigating price volatility risks through flexible adjustments. Regarding pre-holiday stocking: Stocking during the National Day holiday was significantly lower than in previous years. This was primarily due to weak demand during the off-season for aquaculture, which reduced feed companies' demand for rapeseed meal. Furthermore, market expectations for a more relaxed supply of rapeseed meal in the future led companies to prefer on-demand purchases rather than pre-stockpiling.

July, August, and September are peak seasons for aquaculture, and demand for rapeseed meal remains high. However, if rapeseed meal supply remains tight and prices remain high, feed companies may seek alternative protein ingredients, such as soybean meal and sunflower meal. This would alter feed formulations and impact rapeseed meal's market share. Furthermore, after the National Day holiday in October, a decline in aquaculture demand will make it difficult to sustain the absolute demand for rapeseed meal.

Overall, while the Ministry of Commerce's extension of the anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is intended to protect the domestic rapeseed industry, it has also exacerbated expectations of supply contraction and price volatility in the rapeseed meal market. In the future, we need to focus on the progress of China-Canada trade negotiations, changes in domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories, and market dynamics of alternative raw materials. These factors will jointly affect the rhythm of stocking before the Spring Festival. Under the dual influence, the spot price of rapeseed meal will continue to be under pressure in the short term.