News dynamics

According to a report by Kommersant on October 7th, according to data from the Center for Coal Price Indices (CCPI), Russia exported 17.1 million tons of coal in September 2025. This was the lowest monthly export volume since April of this year and a 5% decrease from August, but a 22% increase compared to September 2024.

Data from the Central Statistical Information Bureau showed that Russia's coal exports totaled approximately 152.6 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, a 3.8% increase compared to 147 million tons in the same period last year.

According to PJSC Russian Railways, the majority of exported coal is transported through Far Eastern ports, while coal supplies via western routes and land border crossings remain low. Analysts point out that exporters continue to focus on eastern routes due to more advantageous prices, which are $7 to $20 per ton higher than those at western ports. High demand from South Korea and China, improved logistics conditions on Russia's railway network, and the expansion of the Baikal-Amur Railway (BAM) also contributed to this trend.

According to CCPI data, China remained the largest buyer of Russian coal in September, with purchases reaching 7.8 million tons, a 3% month-over-month increase. South Korea followed with 2.7 million tons, and Turkey imported 1.2 million tons, a 3% month-over-month increase.

According to NEFT Research, in the last week of September, the free-on-board (FOB) price of 5,500 kcal/kg thermal coal at Far Eastern ports was $69.5 per ton, up 1.6% month-over-month, while the price of 6,000 kcal/kg coal in the Baltic region fell 1.1% to $61.3 per ton. The FOB price of metallurgical coal in the Far East rose 3% to $157.1 per ton, while the FOB price in the Gulf of Finland region rose 4.1% to $131.1 per ton.

According to Kirill Lyakhov, an analyst at 3Kcnepr PA, China's industrial production slowed in the first seven days of October due to the National Day holiday and Golden Week, while logistics and ports operated on a limited schedule. He explained that after October 8-10, as businesses resumed operations, the load on the power system increased sharply, particularly in the northern and eastern provinces. Electricity and heat consumption increased, prompting power plants to actively draw down on coal reserves. Kirill Lyakhov added that planned winter reserves will be replenished in the second half of the month, likely further increasing demand for coal, including imported coal.

In the fourth quarter, global changes are not expected to have a significant impact on Russian coal exports for the entire year or on prices at the end of September.

Evgeny Grayev, Director of Russia's CCPI, predicted, "Seasonal demand may support inventory replenishment before the onset of winter at the end of the year. However, exchange rates and logistics costs remain limiting factors for Russian coal export growth. Thermal coal prices are likely to face inter-seasonal pressure in October."

Sergey Grishunin, Director and General Manager of the rating agency NRA, stated that the situation for Russian suppliers is likely to continue to deteriorate, with actual prices potentially falling even further due to the need to sell coal at discounted prices, which will impact profitability.

Furthermore, he noted that the advantages of the eastern route are being offset by full capacity constraints on rail lines to ports and rising logistics costs, creating price barriers to increased shipments. Analysts say that given the pressures of high logistics costs and an unfavorable price environment, the main scenario remains export congestion or a moderate decline in exports. However, not everyone is pessimistic. For example, Alexander Titov, an expert at the Institute of Energy and Finance, believes that export volumes in the fourth quarter of 2025 will remain above last year's level, but will not reach 2023 levels. He stated, "The ruble has depreciated somewhat, but remains quite strong. Coal export prices have risen after recovering in the summer, but remain low. We are more likely to see a slight increase in prices in the fourth quarter than a further decline."

He stated, "The ruble has depreciated somewhat, but remains quite strong. Coal export prices have risen after recovering in the summer, but remain low. We are more likely to see a slight increase in prices in the fourth quarter than a further decline."