News dynamics

Recently, all parts of the south plum rain weather has successively appeared around the south,high temperature weather increased significantly, daily consumption increased, but the power terminal inventory de-stabilization is slow, at the same time, non-electricity off-season performance is general, the overall market in stock procurement demand is relatively low, coal prices stable weak operation. What will happen to the coal market in late July?

Origin coal supply will shrink

This week, the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was held as scheduled. Some coal mines in the main production areas were suspended in stages and coal supply contracted. At the same time, due to negative downstream procurement, some coal mines have already seen top storage. In this case, it is expected that the enthusiasm of the mine side for production will decline in the short term.

In addition, entering the critical period of "seven down and eight up" flood control, mine water accidents and natural disasters are prone to occur frequently, the situation of mine flood control is extremely severe, the safety supervision of coal mines in the producing areas will be strengthened, and coal mine production will be limited. On the whole, the domestic coal supply level in July is likely to be lower than that in June.

Hydropower issuance continues to squeeze thermal power demand

Since the beginning of this year, hydropower has continued to improve, and the squeezing effect on thermal power is more obvious. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in June, domestic hydropower generation increased by as much as 45% year-on-year, while thermal power generation fell by 7.4 year-on-year.

In late July, my country's main rainfall areas were located in Huanghuai, western Sichuan Basin, southern South China, and western and southern Yunnan. Hydropower is expected to maintain a high growth rate, thermal power demand will continue to be suppressed.

Traders will continue to maintain price sentiment

In terms of market sentiment, after the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, will there be favorable policies in real estate, infrastructure and other industries? In this regard, the market is generally full of expectations.

At the same time, the "dog days" start, the late power plant daily consumption or rapid increase. In addition, the high cost of coal hoarding, in summary, traders continue to lower the price of the willingness or not.

In late July, with the increase in hydropower, thermal power demand will continue to be suppressed, and the peak season characteristics of the demand side will be more difficult to show. But the source of coal supply contraction will be good for the market, at the same time, traders stand price sentiment is difficult to change. Overall, in late July, the coal market will continue to fluctuate steadily. Later, we need to focus on: the actual depot situation of the "dog days" power plant and the direction of macroeconomic policy.