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OleoScope analysts have calculated the expected export tariffs on sunflower oil and sunflower meal for November this year.
According to the Moscow Mercantile Exchange, the indicative price of sunflower oil used to calculate the November tariff is $1,140.3 per ton, equivalent to 93,390 rubles at the current exchange rate of 81.9 rubles to the dollar. Therefore, if the US dollar exchange rate remains stable, the preliminary export tariff on sunflower oil is likely to be 7,623 rubles per ton, a decrease of 424 rubles from the October target. If the US dollar exchange rate remains between 81 and 83 rubles, the tariff per ton is likely to fluctuate between 6,905 and 8,501 rubles. Within this range, each ruble increase or decrease in the exchange rate will result in a 798 ruble change in the tariff.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture previously announced an export tariff rate of 8,047.3 rubles per ton for sunflower oil in October, corresponding to an indicative price of $1,126.7 or 93,996 rubles per ton.
On the other hand, the indicative price of sunflower meal used to calculate the November tariff is $215.6 per ton or 17,658 rubles. Therefore, the projected export tariff rate is 1,248 rubles per ton, a decrease of 160 rubles from the previous month. With the US dollar exchange rate between 81 and 83 rubles, the tariff per ton is expected to fluctuate between 1,112 and 1,414 rubles. Within this range, each ruble increase or decrease in the exchange rate translates to a 150.9 ruble change in the corresponding tariff.
This month (October), the tariff on sunflower meal is 1,408 rubles per ton, corresponding to an indicative price of $214.4 or 17,887 rubles per ton.
It's worth recalling that Russia introduced a "sliding tariff" mechanism for sunflower seed products on September 1, 2021. Initially calculated in US dollars, the tariff rate was switched to rubles from July 2022. When the mechanism was extended on September 1, 2023, the base price used to calculate the tariff on sunflower meal increased by 2,000 rubles to 15,875 rubles per ton, while the base price used to calculate the tariff on sunflower oil remained unchanged at 82,500 rubles per ton.
The Russian Oils and Fats Union previously stated that, due to factors such as a short sunflower harvest in southern Russia, rising export prices, and a strong ruble, purchase prices in the region rose at the beginning of the season but have since fallen back in the past week. According to Mikhail Maltsev, due to the increase in export tariffs in October (to 80,500 rubles/ton, a 40% increase from September), the slight depreciation of the ruble exchange rate and the nearing end of the harvest, the Union expects prices to continue to fall back to economically reasonable levels and processing profits for exports to return to positive territory.